Relational autonomy and critical minerals
Central question: What remains of Argentine-Brazilian relational autonomy once the relational base itself decouples — and does the extra-regional capture of lithium and niobium accelerate that drift, or could it constitute a new floor?
Argentine lithium and Brazilian niobium form a structural complementarity currently captured mainly by extra-regional actors. Bilateral history offers a precedent, ABACC, born of a shared and symmetrical vital interest. Critical minerals and seabed governance offer no such foundation: they are arenas of competitive access to rents.
This dialogue examines whether the bilateral decoupling under way since the early 2010s still leaves room for cooperation in the South Atlantic, or whether the window has closed.
Starting source: Antoine Bachelin Sena, Hacia una autonomía estratégica regional, CARI, Comentarios Estratégicos no. 68, August 2026