Working Papers
Empirical research with replication data and code
IAS Working Paper 2026/01
Antoine Bachelin Sena
8 September 2026
DOI 10.5281/zenodo.22567731
Licence CC BY 4.0
Brazil’s critical-minerals doctrine names domestic processing as its goal but supplies no measure by which anyone could later establish whether it occurred. This working paper proposes a falsifiable test of conversion and applies it to Comex Stat monthly data for 2016–2025, across eight tariff lines covering lithium, rare earths, niobium and magnets. The test can be run on one line only, spodumene concentrate, and that line returns a commodity reading: no Brazilian line currently validates conversion. The other seven are blind for three distinct reasons — nomenclature, missing industry, market structure — and only the first can be fixed by a customs code. A second route, using destination structure alone, discriminates more cleanly than the price route. The Minaçu rare-earth case, whose operator Serra Verde passed to USA Rare Earth on 3 September 2026, is examined in detail.
Strategic notes and proposals
FOUNDING TEXT
Blue Guyana, Blue Amazon
Manifesto for a Franco-Brazilian doctrine of the South Atlantic. This founding text sets out the strategic vision of the Institut Atlantique Sud: to position Blue Guyana and Blue Amazon as levers of shared sovereignty between France and Brazil in the face of critical dependencies and the geoeconomic competitions of the 21st century.
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STRATEGIC RESEARCH NOTE
Blue Guyana and Blue Amazon
In-depth and structured analysis of the issues of maritime sovereignty, critical minerals and strategic France–Brazil–EU cooperation in the South Atlantic. The note examines French Guiana’s Exclusive Economic Zone, the potential of Blue Amazon (5.7 million km²), critical European dependencies (magnesium 97%, gallium 71%, rare earths 90-98%) and the conditions for strengthened Atlantic cooperation.
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STRATEGIC PROPOSAL — SOVEREIGN FUND
Franco-European Fund for Critical Minerals of Blue Guyana (FFEMC)
Complete proposal for a Franco-European sovereign fund dedicated to the valorisation of the strategic resources of Blue Guyana. The instrument aims to end Chinese predation on gold resources, secure European supplies of critical minerals and build a lever of economic power in South America. Aligned with the Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) and inspired by Guyana’s Natural Resource Fund.
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STRATEGIC STUDY
Sanae Takaichi’s strategy in deep-sea mining
Analysis of the Japanese deep-sea mining strategy led by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, formalized by the Japan–United States Memorandum of Cooperation of March 2026. The study draws concrete lessons for Brazilian sovereignty over the Blue Amazon (5.7 million km²) and the continental shelf extension approved by the CLPC in 2025 (+360,000 km² on the Equatorial Margin).
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STRATEGIC POSITION NOTE
The French strategic context on critical minerals and Guyana
This note examines the unprecedented convergence, between 2022 and 2026, of the Varin report, the creation of DIAMMS, the reform of the mining code and Senate report no. 135 on the Guiana Shield. It analyses the structural bottlenecks that weaken this window of opportunity and proposes concrete recommendations to secure it for the benefit of French and European sovereignty.
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STRATEGIC NOTE
The Blue Amazon: the energy heart of Brazil in the 21st century
Analysis focused on the maritime reinvention of Brazilian power. Blue Amazon (5.7 million km²) concentrates 95% of foreign trade and 95% of Brazil’s offshore oil and gas production. The note examines the Equatorial Margin, seabed resources (notably the Rio Grande Rise) and the conditions for a fully assumed energy sovereignty.
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All publications are available free of charge. The Institute encourages their dissemination in French, Brazilian and European decision-making circles.